Wednesday, March 09, 2005


In the previous post I failed to mention John Edwards and John McCain as contenders for 2008. I don't get many emails, but this post caused some to comment.

First, remember these are my thoughts on the subject, not the result of some poll. That said, there is a poll out today regarding some of the possibles in the next election, and McCain is mentioned. See it here.

The poll indicates that McCain would beat Hillary, by a big margin, and Hillary would defeat Condi in a statistical tie.

Edwards, again, couldn't win his home state in the last election. Even Walter Mondale was able to bring his home state into the win category, albeit the only one. So any talk of Edwards is just that, talk.

Another reason for counting these men out is that they're Senators. For some reason this nation does not elect Senators to the Presidency, at least not recently. Can you tell me the last one that was promoted to the White House? It was Nixon back in 1968 and '72. Once they get into the Senate, something happens to them. Hillary might be the exception to this rule. On the other hand, we seem to like Congressmen and Governors.

McCain has one other big problem: The Bush family. Any serious run for the White House will depend on the Bush administration throwing all their support behind the candidate. There is serious bad blood between McCain and the Bushes, stemming from the 2000 primaries, when the Bush campaign unleashed a nasty ad against McCain in the Carolinas. Some say it was a low blow on the part of the Bushes, it probably was, but no one ever said politics was a game of manners.

McCain hasn't gotten over this and I don't see him ever doing so. In the run-up to election day 2004, the atmosphere was looking dicey for Bush. McCain could've stepped up to the plate to help Bush over the top, but didn't. Instead, he left Bush hanging. The wound inflicted by Bush has yet to heal.

Looking back to Al Gore's failed campaign, you can pinpoint his loss on one thing: Bill Clinton. Clinton never put his full support behind Gore on the campaign trail. Gore was a couple Clinton speeches short of moving in at 1600. I think the same situation is awaiting McCain in 2008.

Again, watch for Newt.

Those are my thoughts.

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