Tuesday, March 08, 2005


Al Gore thought he should answer the question no one was asking: Is he going to run in 2008? It's official, Chris Matthews reported the other day, Al will not be running for President. The real question is: Who really cares?

It seems a bit early in the season to be figuring who'll be contending for the White House; whatever the reason, the process has started anyway. The left/right fight card is hotter than poker right now, and temperatures will rise as we get closer to the mid-term elections in 2006. After that, the picture will become more clear.

On the Dems side, the picture is crystal clear. Hillary is the only one with a chance, though a few names will be tossed around to make it look good. John Kerry will be touted as a statesman with a chance, but the truth is, I have a better chance this time around. Follow the money is a good rule of thumb, and the money will lead you to the cash window at Clinton, Inc. She will have party support, all the money, and, besides, there's no one else with a snowball's chance in the democratic party. No one.

In addition to having all the cash and party support, Hillary has the full force of the media behind her. The media is the only reason Kerry came so close in 2004. Had the media done its job, the campaign would've been stopped in October and the election given to Bush, 49-1. It was a good attempt, luckily a failed one.

On the republican side, there's one person who could win hands-down at this time: Arnold. He's the party rock star, and if the election were held today, he'd easily KO Hilliary early in the first round. The constitutional ammendment problem is simply a problem yet to be solved. It would take a couple days to run through congress. Socially, I don't like his liberal leanings , but I can live with them, besides, you have to understand he's married to Shriver. A little give, a little take.

Other than Arnold, the republicans don't have a rock star equal to him. There's Rudy, but he doesn't sell outside New York, and he's recently picked up more political baggage. He has appeal, but also leans liberally on the social side. The Senate leader, Bill Frist, has had his name tossed out there, but I have no idea why. There's Condi. What's not to like? But it may be premature to consider her at this time. Everything depends on how she does in the new job between now and 2006. I'm hoping she does great for obvious reasons, but I would love to see her name on top of the ticket. A definite VP choice, no argument here.

Any republican with a real shot at the nomination will be looking to California to see what Arnold's next move is. No one has a chance against him, so everyone has to wait and see. If Arnold is out, then I think everyone will turn to the state of Georgia and Newt Gingrich. He's laying low, but the idea of him running has been floated. He's got everything the republicans want in a leader, and I think he could win. Remember "The Contract with America" back in '94?

2008 could bring us a couple different tickets: Arnold/Condi or Newt/Condi or Condi/Newt. Whatever the combination, they all have KO potential against Hillary. A Condi/Newt ticket brings home everything the republicans could ever want. However, you have to get elected first, so star power rests solely with Arnold.

Here's lookin' at you, California.

UPDATE: A few emails said I failed to mention John Edwards as a viable Dem candidate and they said a couple other things about me too. I won't reply to those comments, but I will say that if you are running on the national ticket for VP and fail to carry your home state, you are no longer viable for anything. Thank you and have a nice day.

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